Fade the Field
NFL Survivor Tool
Ownership-weighted expected value analysis for survivor pools. This is the imported strategy surface with the 2026 NFL schedule and early market lines loaded. Ownership projections can layer in as they become available.
Pick Grid
Import your entries or add them manually to see your pick grid across all weeks.
No entries loaded
Ownership Breakdown
Load ownership data to see how the field is distributed across teams this week.
No ownership data loaded
EV Calculator
Available Teams
Click a team to mark it unavailable.
Entries:
Prize Pool: $
Total popularity: 0.0%
EV = Win% / Field Survival Rate. EV > 1.0 means you survive more often than the average entry. Value = (Prize Pool / Entries) × EV.
Sim Settings
Used teams, ownership, and run setup
Available Teams
Click a team to mark it unavailable.
Entries:
Modeled Opp:
Opp:
Prize Pool: $
Total popularity: 0.0%
Full-season simulation from W1 through W18. Our future picks maximize survival probability. Opponents use the selected field model after the current-week ownership input. Prize pool always fully distributed (survivors split, or last-standing split if all die). Sim EV subtext shows five-batch range and standard error. Higher modeled-opponent counts run slower and are best for checking EV stability.
Sim Settings
Used teams, ownership, and run setup
Available Teams
Click a team to mark it unavailable.
Entries:
Modeled Opp:
Opp:
Prize Pool: $
Total popularity: 0.0%
Full-season simulation from W1 through W18. Our future picks maximize survival probability. Opponents use the selected field model after the current-week ownership input. Prize pool always fully distributed (survivors split, or last-standing split if all die). Sim EV subtext shows five-batch range and standard error. Higher modeled-opponent counts run slower and are best for checking EV stability.
No simulation results imported
Run a simulation in the Simulator tab, then click Export to Portfolio to import the results here for multi-entry allocation.
3 entries (you + 2 opponents), 3 teams, 2 weeks. Set win probabilities, opponent W17 ownership, and W18 preference weights.
| Team | W17 Win% | W18 Win% | Opp W17 Own | Opp W18 Pref |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ATeam A | ||||
BTeam B | ||||
CTeam C | ||||
| Normalized | 34% / 33% / 33% |
Opp W17 Own = how opponents distribute W17 picks. Opp W18 Pref = how surviving opponents choose W18 team (normalized to available after W17 pick).
Iterations: