Splash Sports

World Cup Survivor Simulator

Optimize the 2026 FIFA World Cup survivor format: four group-stage advance picks, then knockout winner picks with double-pick rounds and one-time team use.

Splash World Cup Survivor Optimizer

Fast pre-tournament model for the Splash format: 4 group-stage advance picks, then 2-2-2-1-1 knockout winner picks with one-time team use. Defaults now use Pinnacle futures where available, with all probabilities editable.

Splash · 4 group picks, then 2-2-2-1-1 knockout picks. One-time team use.
Optimizer mode
Auto strategy: large-field strategy
The optimizer automatically balances survival, uniqueness, and team preservation from the contest size and ownership assumptions.
Mode controls the search order: integrated starts with group picks; knockout-first reserves complete knockout paths first; blend lets both compete.
Iterations are compute budget, not strategy. More iterations make Monte Carlo EV and split estimates less noisy, but they take longer to run.

Team assumptions

Probability columns estimate advancement and field ownership. Strength ratings drive hypothetical head-to-head matchups through the editable gap table.

R32-forward entry simulator

Pick a saved portfolio entry, force in confirmed knockout slots, fill the rest with chalk, then use the same computer-pick, compare-choices, reseed, and round simulation tools.

Selected group picks
Save or import a portfolio first, then select an entry here.
Current hard-coded slots
1AMexico
2ASouth Africa
1BSwitzerland
2BCanada
3BBosnia and Herzegovina
1CBrazil
2CMorocco
1DUnited States
2DAustralia
3DParaguay
1EGermany
2EIvory Coast
3EEcuador
1FNetherlands
2FJapan
1GBelgium
2GEgypt
1HSpain
2HCape Verde
3FSweden
1IFrance
2INorway
3ISenegal
1JArgentina
2JAustria
3JAlgeria
1KColombia
2KPortugal
3KDR Congo
1LEngland
2LCroatia
3LGhana
Portfolio R32 planner

Runs the R32 compare-choice engine across every live entry in the selected portfolio or uploaded CSV, then summarizes projected R32 ownership.

AGG
0 / 0 entries assigned · template missing
No portfolio entry is available yet. Build or upload a portfolio in Portfolio Manager, or upload a Splash entries CSV here.

Model note: Monte Carlo now simulates a coherent tournament world: group finish order, eight best third-place teams, FIFA Annex C placement, and the fixed knockout bracket. Source note: Pinnacle guest API futures snapshot plus editable Survivor Lab power ratings, pulled 2026-06-08.